AUSTRALIA GOVT ALLAYS FEARS ON CARBON SCHEME
10.31.08 - Leído 22 veces. Enviar esta notaJames Grubel and Rob Taylor
The Australian government sought to ease fears about the impact of its carbon trade scheme on Thursday, saying the coming regime would have a minimal impact on economic growth and exporters amid financial turmoil
CANBERRA, Australia; October 31, 2008.- Treasurer Wayne Swan and Climate Change Minister Penny Wong released Treasury modelling which found carbon trading would cut average per capita growth by 0.1 percent a year from introduction in 2010 to 2050, with only a small one-off inflation impact.
The cost of curbing greenhouse gas emissions, blamed for global warming, would be lower for countries which acted early, and would not force major resource projects to close or cause polluting businesses to shift offshore, the data said.
“Australia can reduce its emissions while continuing to grow our economy and our incomes,” Wong told reporters in Brisbane, adding the centre-left government was committed to meet its deadline for carbon trading by July 2010.
Big business has urged postponement or changes to the regime, saying major resource companies and exporters would be forced to close or shift operations offshore under plans to charge big business for carbon pollution.
But the Treasury models said Australia’s emissions-intensive trade exposed industries, such as coal, cement, iron and steel and livestock, would continue to grow.
“Overall, these sectors are expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower rate than they would in a world without climate change and emissions pricing,” Treasury said.
The modelling does not take into account the impact of the global financial crisis, or market fluctuations, which it said would not derail its analysis of carbon trade and Australian policies to cut carbon emissions.
Under the government plans, Australian gross domestic product per person would grow at an average 1.2 to 1.3 percent from 2010 to 2050, compared to 1.4 percent without carbon trading.
Real household income would grow an average 1 percent a year, Treasury said, compared to 1.2 percent. The carbon trading scheme would also deliver a one-off inflation rise of around 1 percent to 1.5 percent, with minimal long-term impact.
The figures forecast a possible starting carbon price of about A$23 (US$15) a tonne on startup in 2010, if the government decides on a target to reduce emissions to 550 parts per million, with a higher price for tougher targets.
Australia is the world’s biggest coal exporter, and relies on coal for 80 percent of its electricity. But Treasury said there was no evidence putting a price on pollution would compromise the security of Australia’s energy supply.
The long-term future of Australia’s coal industry depended upon new, clean technology, such as carbon capture and storage, it said.
The Australian Greens said the modelling backed the need to take swift action on climate change, urging Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to set tough targets to reduce greenhouse emissions by at least 25 percent by 2020.
“The stronger the target we aim for, the more investment we will need to achieve it and the more innovative, jobs-rich, economic activity will be stimulated,” Greens senator Christine Milne said in a statement.
Australia has yet to set an emissions target for 2020, but has promised to reduce emissions by 60 percent by 2050.
A government options paper on carbon trading, released in July, proposed forcing 1,000 of the biggest polluting firms to buy emissions permits, putting a market price on carbon and providing a financial incentive to clean up pollution.
It said up to 90 percent of permits could be free for major polluters to help them adjust to a relatively low carbon price of around A$20 (US$12.98) a tonne, while consumers would get subsidies to offset price hikes.
(US$1=A$1.50)
(Reuters)
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